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003			NUCLARK
005			20241203161544.0
008			241203b ph ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
022			_a0033-295X
040			_aNU CLARK _cNU CLARK
245			_aTime-evolving psychological processes over repeated decisions / _cDavid Gunawan, Guy E. Hawkins, Robert Kohn, Minh-Ngoc Tran, and Scott D. Brown
260			_aWashington DC : _bAmerican Psychological Association, _cc2022
500			_aIncludes appendices (pages 452-456).
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 449-451).
520			_aMany psychological experiments have subjects repeat a task to gain the statistical precision required to test quantitative theories of psychological performance. In such experiments, time-on-task can have sizable effects on performance, changing the psychological processes under investigation. Most research has either ignored these changes, treating the underlying process as static, or sacrificed some psychological content of the models for statistical simplicity. We use particle Markov chain Monte-Carlo methods to study psychologically plausible time-varying changes in model parameters. Using data from three highly cited experiments, we find strong evidence in favor of a hidden Markov switching process as an explanation of time-varying effects. This embodies the psychological assumption of “regime switching,” with subjects alternating between different cognitive states representing different modes of decision-making. The switching model explains key long- and short-term dynamic effects in the data. The central idea of our approach can be applied quite generally to quantitative psychological theories, beyond the models and datasets that we investigate.
650			_aDYNAMIC
650			_aDECISION MAKING
650			_aREGIME SWICTHING
650			_aHIDDEN MARKOV PROCESS
650			_aPRACTICE
700			_aHawkins, Guy E. _eauthor
700			_aKohn, Robert _eauthor
700			_aTran, Minh-Ngoc _eauthor
700			_aBrown, Scott D. _eauthor
773			_tPsychological Review _gVolume 129, Number 3, April 2022, pages 438-456.
856			_uhttps://doi.org/10.1037/rev0000351 _zSupplemental material
942			_2lcc _cCR _n0
999			_c3457 _d3457